Conflict and civil emergencies: what the UK actually plans for

The UK publishes its risk planning openly. The National Risk Register says plainly that “all risks in the NSRA are relatively low likelihood events” (Cabinet Office, checked 29 August 2026), and its own advice to households is five ordinary steps. The same cupboard and cushion cover almost everything.

First, the calm bit

If you have arrived here after a worrying half hour on the internet, start with this: the UK government publishes its own assessment of what could go wrong, in public, with numbers attached. That document is calmer than almost anything written about it.

It is called the National Risk Register. It is written for planners, not for households, and its own advice to individuals is five short steps you could do this evening, three of which are free.

This page describes what that document actually says, what the Emergency Alerts system on your phone is for, and why the ordinary preparation on the rest of this site covers nearly all of it. There is nothing to buy at the end.

What is the National Risk Register?

The National Risk Register is “the external version of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA), which is the government’s assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK” (GOV.UK, checked 29 August 2026). The Cabinet Office publishes it; the 2026 edition was published on 14 July 2026 and last updated on 12 August 2026.

It “provides the government’s updated assessment of the likelihood and potential impact of a broad range of risks that may directly affect the UK and its interests”. Its audience is stated openly: “risk and resilience practitioners, including businesses and voluntary and community sector organisations”.

The register is candid about who it is for. “This edition of the NRR is available to all but not targeted at the general public. Advice for individuals, households and communities on preparing for a wide range of risks can be found on the Prepare website” (National Risk Register 2026, checked 29 August 2026).

That is a useful thing to hold on to. The register is a planning tool for hospitals, councils and infrastructure operators. It is not a warning aimed at you.

How the register describes likelihood

This is the part that surprises people, because the language is so measured.

The register assesses “the likelihood of the reasonable worst-case scenario occurring within the assessment period (which is 5 years for non-malicious risks and 2 years for malicious risks)”. Likelihood is “presented as the percentage chance of the reasonable worst-case scenario occurring at least once in the assessment timescale and is scored on a 1-5 scale” (National Risk Register 2026, checked 29 August 2026).

Then comes the sentence that deserves to be quoted more often than it is: “The highest score (5) represents a greater than 25% likelihood. The reason that this number is relatively low is that all risks in the NSRA are relatively low likelihood events.”

In other words, the top of the government’s own scale is a one-in-four chance over five years, and everything in the document sits below that. Note also that these figures describe the reasonable worst-case scenario for each risk, not the typical case. The ordinary version of most of these events is much smaller.

Impact is assessed separately, across seven broad dimensions including human welfare, behavioural impacts and economic effects.

What the register actually covers

The 2026 edition groups risks into themes rather than headlines. They include terrorism, cyber attacks on infrastructure and public services, accidents and system failures, natural hazards and severe weather, human and animal health, and societal and environmental risks.

Each entry is written the same way: a description, an assessment of likelihood and impact, the common consequences, the impacts on vulnerable people, and the capabilities that government, infrastructure operators and the voluntary sector hold in response.

New entries in 2026 include digital resilience failure, added to reflect learning from incidents such as the CrowdStrike IT outage in July 2024, two risks covering data infrastructure, cyber attacks on water infrastructure and on police systems, disruption to the criminal justice system, accidental damage to the National Gas Transmission Network, and interference in the UK democratic process. One risk, the disruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe, was removed because reliance on those imports has significantly reduced (National Risk Register 2026, checked 29 August 2026).

The register also distinguishes acute risks, the discrete events it lists, from chronic risks such as antimicrobial resistance, the impacts of artificial intelligence, reliance on global supply chains and climate change. Those are handled in a separate Chronic Risks Analysis, which identifies 26 chronic risks and uses futures and systems thinking rather than probability scoring.

We are not going to speculate here about any individual entry. The document is public, it is written in plain English, and it is a better read than anything anyone says about it.

What “prepare” officially means

Chapter 3 of the register is titled “Individuals and communities”, and it points straight at GOV.UK Prepare. It lists “five simple steps people could consider taking to improve their preparedness for emergencies” (National Risk Register 2026, checked 29 August 2026):

1. Check whether you are eligible for the Priority Services Register with your gas, electricity and water supplier, so they know you need additional support when there is an interruption to supply. Ask anyone you care for whether they are registered.
2. Set a reminder to check your smoke alarms at least once a month. You can involve children in the monthly test.
3. Write down important phone numbers on paper, such as the number to report a power cut (105) and anyone you might want to contact in an emergency.
4. Talk to your children about emergencies, including how and when to call 999 and what to do if there is a fire at home.
5. Check your long-term flood risk and sign up for flood and weather warnings.

That is the whole official household list. Four of the five cost nothing, and the register’s own framing is quiet: “Taking action now will make it easier to manage if an emergency does happen.”

The Prepare campaign fills in the rest. It describes preparing as taking “simple and effective steps” for emergencies and the disruption they cause, notes that many of those steps “can be helpful across a range of different types of emergency”, and is explicit that you do not have to do it in one go: “Rather than buying all the items at once, you could just add to your emergency kit when you are able and build it up over time” (GOV.UK Prepare, checked 29 August 2026).

Our home emergency kit is that list, priced, and where to start is the version for anyone who wants one thing to do tonight.

What happens during an emergency

The register is specific about what the public is asked to do, and it is not dramatic.

“In the event of an emergency, the public can play a vital role by alerting the emergency services (dialling 999) and by providing first aid, comfort and support while waiting for the emergency services to arrive.”

Depending on the incident, people may be asked to “go in, stay in and tune in” to local radio stations or official sources online. As the register puts it: “Unless there is an obvious risk to the building, going inside and seeking further information is often the safest thing to do.” People should always be guided by what they can see around them, and it is never safe to return to a building that is on fire.

If responding authorities ask you to evacuate, the register asks people not to delay, because delaying or refusing puts both residents and responders at risk.

For information, it points to official sources: local authorities, government agencies and emergency services, local radio and TV, and messages sent to mobile phones by the UK government’s Emergency Alerts service.

What the Emergency Alerts system is

Emergency Alerts is “a UK government system that provides warning and advice in a life threatening emergency” (GOV.UK, checked 29 August 2026). You do not sign up for it and you do not need to do anything to receive it.

• What it feels like. Your device may “make a loud siren-like sound, even if it’s set on silent”, vibrate, or read the alert out. “The sound and vibration will last for about 10 seconds.”
• What to do. “When you get an alert, stop what you’re doing and follow the instructions in the alert.” If you are driving, find somewhere safe and legal to stop before reading it.
• How it reaches you. “Mobile phone masts in the surrounding area will broadcast an alert. Every compatible mobile phone or tablet in range of a mast will receive the alert.” Alerts are based on your current location, not where you live or work.
• Your privacy. “The emergency services and the UK government do not need your phone number to send you an alert”, and “data about you, your device or location will not be collected or shared”.
• Connection. Your device does not need mobile data or wifi to receive one, though it will not arrive if the phone is in aeroplane mode (GOV.UK, checked 29 August 2026).

The register notes the service is used for severe weather and flood warnings, and can support response to public health emergencies and fires as well. Alongside it, the government runs targeted campaigns rather than general alarm: “Run, Hide and Tell”, “WeatherReady” for severe weather, and “Cyber Aware” for staying secure online.

The alerts guide covers every free warning service worth having, and takes about ten minutes.

Why the same preparation covers almost everything

Here is the reason this site has three pillars rather than thirty scenario plans.

Read the register’s list of risks and then read what each one actually does to a household. Almost all of them arrive as some combination of the same four things: the power goes off, the water goes off or is not safe to drink, the shops and the payment system are disrupted for a few days, or you are asked to stay in or move out at short notice.

That is why the Prepare campaign says the same steps “can be helpful across a range of different types of emergency”. Water, food that needs no cooking, a torch, a radio, a power bank, some medicines, a little cash, numbers on paper and a plan to check on neighbours answer the household version of nearly every entry in the register. You do not need a different kit per risk. You need one cupboard.

The uncomfortable exception is the one thing you cannot buy, which is the next section.

What this asks of your body

Every plan on this page assumes you can do a few ordinary physical things: walk further than usual, carry water or shopping, climb stairs when a lift is off, and help someone else who cannot. The register’s own emphasis on the disproportionate impacts of emergencies on vulnerable people is really a statement about capability, and capability is the only part of readiness that cannot be bought in a shop. The five ready body tests take ten minutes, need no equipment, and tell you honestly where you are.

Frequently asked questions

What is the National Risk Register?

It is the public version of the National Security Risk Assessment, the government’s assessment of the most serious risks facing the UK, published by the Cabinet Office (GOV.UK, checked 29 August 2026). The 2026 edition was published on 14 July 2026 and is aimed at risk and resilience practitioners rather than the general public.

How likely are the risks in the National Risk Register?

The register scores likelihood 1 to 5, where 5 means more than a 25% chance of the reasonable worst-case scenario happening at least once in the assessment period. It states plainly that “all risks in the NSRA are relatively low likelihood events” (checked 29 August 2026).

Should I read the National Risk Register?

You can, and it is free, but the register itself says this edition is “available to all but not targeted at the general public” and points households to GOV.UK Prepare instead (checked 29 August 2026). Prepare is shorter, practical, and written for you.

What does the government actually ask households to do?

Five things: check eligibility for the Priority Services Register, test smoke alarms monthly, write important phone numbers on paper including 105, talk to children about emergencies and calling 999, and check your flood risk and sign up for warnings (National Risk Register 2026, checked 29 August 2026).

Do I need to sign up for Emergency Alerts?

No. Compatible phones and tablets in range of a mast receive them automatically, based on your current location, and the government does not need your phone number to send one (GOV.UK, checked 29 August 2026). There is an opt-out on GOV.UK if you want it.

What does “go in, stay in and tune in” mean?

It is the standard instruction for some incidents: go inside, stay there, and tune in to local radio or official sources for information. The register notes that “unless there is an obvious risk to the building, going inside and seeking further information is often the safest thing to do” (checked 29 August 2026).

Do I need a different plan for each type of emergency?

No. Most emergencies reach a household as the same handful of disruptions, which is why GOV.UK Prepare says the same steps “can be helpful across a range of different types of emergency” (checked 29 August 2026). One well-stocked cupboard, a small cash cushion and a body that copes covers the great majority of it.

Sources & review

• National Risk Register 2026, Cabinet Office on GOV.UK: what the register is, the publication and update dates, its stated purpose, and its audience of risk and resilience practitioners. Checked 29 August 2026.
• National Risk Register 2026 (full document, PDF), Cabinet Office: the likelihood methodology and 1 to 5 scale with percentage bands, the 5 year and 2 year assessment periods, “all risks in the NSRA are relatively low likelihood events”, the seven impact dimensions, the acute and chronic risk distinction and the 26 chronic risks, the changes and additions in the 2026 edition, the statement that the edition is not targeted at the general public, the five preparedness tips, the “go in, stay in and tune in” guidance, the evacuation advice, and the Run Hide Tell, WeatherReady and Cyber Aware campaigns. Checked 29 August 2026.
• Emergency Alerts, UK Government: what the service is, the siren-like sound and 10 second vibration, what to do when you receive one, and that alerts are based on your current location. Checked 29 August 2026.
• How emergency alerts work, UK Government: broadcast from nearby masts to every compatible device in range, no phone number or location data needed, and behaviour without mobile data or in aeroplane mode. Checked 29 August 2026.
• Get prepared for emergencies, UK Government: preparing as simple and effective steps, steps that help across a range of emergencies, building the kit over time, and the household kit contents. Checked 29 August 2026.

Reviewed by: TBC. Review date: 29 August 2026.